Amazon is on track to overtake Walmart as the greatest U.S. retailer in 2022, according to JPMorgan study produced Friday.

Amazon’s U.S. retail organization is the “quickest developing at scale,” according to the company’s analysts. Involving 2014 and 2020, Amazon’s U.S. gross items quantity, or GMV — a intently viewed business metric employed to evaluate the total value of items sold above a sure time interval — has grown “considerably speedier” than both equally U.S. altered retail gross sales and U.S. e-commerce, the analysts explained.

Neither Amazon nor Walmart split out GMV in their quarterly earnings benefits, but JPMorgan estimates Amazon’s GMV is growing speedier than its greatest retail competitor. JPMorgan analysts said Amazon’s GMV in 2020 climbed 41% 12 months more than yr to $316 billion, though Walmart’s GMV is believed to have developed 10% calendar year over yr to $439 billion in 2020.

“Centered on present estimates, we imagine Amazon could surpass Walmart to develop into the largest U.S. retailer in 2022,” J.P. Morgan analysts Christopher Horvers and Doug Anmuth wrote Friday.

Horvers and Anmuth highlighted a handful of things they think are driving Amazon’s best-line growth, which includes an enlargement into “huge and underneath-penetrated categories” these kinds of as grocery and attire, strong expansion of 3rd-occasion seller product sales and the “Primary flywheel.” Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos stated in April the company now has more than 200 million Primary subscribers, up from 150 million at the beginning of 2020.

The coronavirus pandemic fast accelerated the adoption of e-commerce and cemented Amazon’s dominance in the retail area. Trapped-at-house individuals turned to Amazon for a plethora of products ranging from bathroom paper to exercise session gear. They also relied on Amazon for companies they could possibly not have normally regarded as, this sort of as online grocery shipping and delivery.

Amazon’s pandemic-fueled profits surge has served it increase its slice of the e-commerce current market. JPMorgan estimates Amazon expanded its share of the U.S. e-commerce sector to 39% in 2020, up from 24% in 2014.

The accelerated adoption of e-commerce has also delivered a carry to other regions of Amazon’s small business.

Amazon is on keep track of to “come to be just one of the most significant shipping and delivery organizations” in the U.S., analysts at Lender of The us wrote in study printed Tuesday.

Amazon is estimated to supply 7 billion deals in 2021, surpassing the roughly 6 billion deals UPS is predicted to supply in the U.S. this 12 months, the analysts wrote, citing figures from MWPVL Global, a source chain and logistics consulting business.

In the latest a long time, Amazon has quietly developed a shipping procedure that rivals the likes of UPS, FedEx and the U.S. Postal Company. It maintains an at any time-expanding network of warehouses and very last-mile supply stations, and a sprawling logistics operation with airplanes, vans and vans.

This has allowed Amazon to supply most of its individual orders. Amazon at the moment provides deals for other enterprises in the U.K. and could a person working day increase that support to the U.S.

MWPVL estimates Amazon handled about 5 billion of the 7.35 billion deals it delivered in 2020. UPS and USPS handled the other 1.25 billion and 1.1 billion, respectively, in accordance to Financial institution of America analysts.